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Blood on the Ice is genuinely unsolvable without a guide or save scumming

I just got to Windhelm for the first time on a new playthrough and decided to actually do Blood on the Ice properly instead of just ignoring it like I usually do. Spent like an hour talking to NPCs, gathering clues, and I'm pretty sure I softlocked myself out of the quest because I accused the wrong person too early and now nobody will talk to me about it.

Is this quest actually designed this badly or am I missing something? The clues don't point anywhere obvious, the suspects all have sketchy alibis, and the game doesn't really telegraph that you can only accuse someone once before you're locked out. I ended up just reloading a save from like 40 minutes ago because I wasn't about to restart the whole thing.

Wondering if USSEP on PC actually fixes this or if it's just a fundamental design problem with how the quest tracks dialogue flags. On Switch so I can't mod it anyway, but I'm curious if other people have run into this.
 
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